加拿大退休优化器如何计算退休结果。

年度预测引擎

The calculator projects the household one year at a time from the base year through the selected life-expectancy horizon. Each year it applies spending, government benefits, other income, account withdrawals, investment growth, taxes, TFSA funding, housing changes 和 end-of-year balances in a defined order. This avoids treating retirement as one averaged lump-sum calculation.

Canadian account 和 tax treatment

• RRSP/RRIF： modeled withdrawals are included in taxable income; RRSP-to-RRIF transition 和 RRIF minimum withdrawals are enforced using prescribed factors.
• TFSA： withdrawals are modeled tax-free; available contribution room 和 the user’s annual fill target govern modeled contributions.
• 非注册利息/收入资产： 储蓄/GIC 类利息每年按应税收入建模。
• 非注册资本收益资产： adjusted cost base is tracked 和 allocated proportionally on partial sales. Positive realized gains are included using the modeled capital-gains inclusion rate.
• 现金： 使用现金本金时不征税；模型中的现金利息计入应税收入。

The base tax engine uses 2026 federal 和 provincial/territorial brackets 和 selected retirement-related credits/surtaxes implemented by the calculator, with future indexed planning assumptions. It is not a tax-return engine 和 therefore does not include every deduction, refundable credit, special election, business item or unusual tax circumstance.

CPP 和 OAS

CPP timing follows the federal age adjustments: 0.6% per month reduction before 65 和 0.7% per month increase after 65 up to 70. OAS can be modeled from 65 or delayed to 70 at 0.6% per month. The optional benefit estimator uses earnings/residence history as an estimate; official CPP/OAS entitlement should be verified with Service Canada.

OAS recovery tax is estimated individually based on modeled net income 和 the applicable base rules. Because thresholds 和 OAS amounts change, the planner’s future-year results are projections rather than future tax-return values.

家庭税务优化器

For eligible couples, the model tests annual pension-income allocation up to the legal 50% maximum. It considers the estimated household tax result, OAS recovery 和 modeled retirement tax credits. The optimizer does not assume that a 50% split is best; it searches the permitted range for the modeled household outcome.

工具还会比较提款策略，包括为平滑应税收入而进行的受控注册账户提款。建议属于情景输出，不是个人税务建议。

住房情景

When enabled, the calculator can compare keeping the current home, downsizing at a selected age or selling 和 renting. It applies the entered home appreciation, mortgage, transaction costs, replacement-home cost, moving costs 和 rent/housing inflation. Net released proceeds are added to retirement assets. Principal-residence treatment is simplified 和 unusual tax situations require professional review.

Monte Carlo 和 safe spending

The deterministic projection uses the user’s expected returns. Monte Carlo analysis instead varies market-sensitive investment returns across many simulated paths using the selected expected return 和 volatility. Stable interest/GIC 和 cash return assumptions remain separate. Results include modeled success probability 和 percentile outcomes.

安全支出分析会寻找在保留计划中一次性支出的同时达到所选置信目标的支出水平。蒙特卡洛结果是规划估算，不是现实世界的保证概率。

退休准备度评分

退休准备度评分只是展示层，完全基于规划工具已经计算出的结果；它不会修改账户余额、税款、提款、CPP/OAS 时机、蒙特卡洛路径或安全支出计算。

• 退休置信度 — 50 分： 当蒙特卡洛成功率达到所选目标时获得满分；低于目标时按比例计分。
• 支出缓冲 — 20 分： 比较模型安全 Go-Go 支出与输入的 Go-Go 支出；一旦安全支出估算覆盖输入金额即获得满分。
• 压力测试韧性 — 20 分： 分数与五项压力测试中能够完全为计划提供资金的测试数量成比例。
• 确定性资金覆盖 — 10 分： 当基础预测能够覆盖所选规划期内的计划支出时获得。

The total is rounded to the nearest whole number 和 capped between 0 和 100. Bands are: Strong (90–100), Good (75–89), Watch (60–74) 和 需要关注 (below 60). These labels are intentionally descriptive rather than predictive.

Privacy-safe share links contain only the score, confidence result/target, stress-test pass count, whether the base projection funds the plan, 和 a general planning-focus message. Detailed financial inputs are not encoded into the link.

重要限制

• Future tax brackets, credits, benefit amounts 和 legislation cannot be known with certainty.
• 税务模型不会复现每一项扣除、抵免、归属规则或报税表项目。
• Detailed dividend/distribution tax characteristics 和 capital-loss carryforwards are not fully modeled.
• Investment fees, product-specific taxation 和 management costs are included only if reflected by the user’s return/spending assumptions.
• CPP/OAS 估算不能替代 Service Canada 的官方福利记录。
• Monte Carlo distributions simplify real market behaviour 和 cannot forecast future returns.
• Estate, probate, succession 和 beneficiary taxation can vary substantially by province 和 family situation.