Instead of assuming that one withdrawal rate is “safe,” test the actual retirement cash flows against many market paths 和 a chosen confidence target. Government pensions 和 更低 spending later in retirement can support a very different result than a flat withdrawal rule suggests.
4% 规则能做什么、不能做什么
The well-known 4% rule comes from historical portfolio research 和 is often interpreted as withdrawing roughly 4% of the starting portfolio in year one, then increasing the dollar amount with inflation. It is not a Canadian tax rule 和 it does not automatically account for CPP, OAS, RRIF minimums, TFSA withdrawals, home decisions or an individual’s actual tax profile.
退休支出通常会随年龄变化
Many households spend more in the active early years of retirement, somewhat less later, 和 less again at advanced ages—although health 和 care costs can change that pattern. Modeling Go-Go, Slow-Go 和 No-Go spending phases can therefore be more realistic than assuming one inflation-adjusted spending level forever.
使用置信目标，而不是承诺
Monte Carlo analysis tests the plan against many different sequences of market returns. A “90% confidence” result means the modeled plan succeeded in roughly 90% of the simulated paths under the assumptions used. It is not a 90% guarantee. Assumptions can be wrong, tax rules change 和 real investment returns do not follow a perfect statistical distribution.
安全支出优化器如何工作
The planner estimates the highest Go-Go, Slow-Go 和 No-Go lifestyle spending consistent with a user-selected confidence target while keeping planned one-time expenses in the model. This produces a spending estimate tied to the household’s actual assets, benefits, taxes 和 timing.
估算可持续退休支出
Run Monte Carlo analysis 和 compare your planned spending with the tool’s safe-spending estimate.