A large market decline early in retirement can force withdrawals from a depressed portfolio 和 leave fewer assets available for a recovery. Stable cash or GIC-type assets, flexible spending 和 tax-aware withdrawal choices can improve resilience, but none eliminates market risk.
相同平均回报，不同结果
Imagine a portfolio experiences a large loss, then several strong years. If the loss happens before retirement withdrawals begin, the investor may have time to recover. If the same loss happens immediately after retirement 和 spending must continue, assets are sold at 更低 values 和 fewer units remain to participate in the rebound.
退休者如何管理收益顺序风险
- 为近期支出保留合理的现金或高质量短期储备。
- 把稳定的利息/GIC 资产与对市场敏感的投资分开。
- 市场大幅下跌后减少可自由支配支出。
- 采用税务优化的账户提款，而不是每年都出售同一种资产类别。
- 当计划承压时推迟或调整重大可自由支配支出。
为什么蒙特卡洛分析有用
A deterministic projection assumes one smooth average return 和 therefore cannot show sequence risk. Monte Carlo analysis varies market returns year by year 和 measures how often the retirement plan funds spending through the planning horizon. It is still a model, but it exposes risks hidden by a straight-line return.
规划工具如何压力测试收益顺序风险
The planner can run 500, 1,000 or 2,000 market paths 和 reports success probability plus 10th, median 和 90th percentile outcomes. It also includes a specific 30% market-drop-at-retirement stress test 和 models stable interest/GIC assets separately from market investments.
对您的退休计划进行压力测试
Run Monte Carlo confidence 和 a retirement-start market-drop test using your own assumptions.