Instead of assuming that one withdrawal rate is “safe,” test the actual retirement cash flows against many market paths et a chosen confidence target. Government pensions et inférieure spending later in retirement can support a very different result than a flat withdrawal rule suggests.
Ce que la règle des 4 % fait — et ne fait pas
The well-known 4% rule comes from historical portfolio research et is often interpreted as withdrawing roughly 4% of the starting portfolio in year one, then increasing the dollar amount with inflation. It is not a Canadian tax rule et it does not automatically account for CPP, OAS, RRIF minimums, TFSA withdrawals, home decisions or an individual’s actual tax profile.
Les dépenses de retraite changent souvent avec l’âge
Many households spend more in the active early years of retirement, somewhat less later, et less again at advanced ages—although health et care costs can change that pattern. Modeling Go-Go, Slow-Go et No-Go spending phases can therefore be more realistic than assuming one inflation-adjusted spending level forever.
Utilisez une cible de confiance, pas une promesse
Monte Carlo analysis tests the plan against many different sequences of market returns. A “90% confidence” result means the modeled plan succeeded in roughly 90% of the simulated paths under the assumptions used. It is not a 90% guarantee. Assumptions can be wrong, tax rules change et real investment returns do not follow a perfect statistical distribution.
Comment fonctionne l’optimiseur de dépenses sécuritaires
The planner estimates the highest Go-Go, Slow-Go et No-Go lifestyle spending consistent with a user-selected confidence target while keeping planned one-time expenses in the model. This produces a spending estimate tied to the household’s actual assets, benefits, taxes et timing.
Estimer des dépenses de retraite durables
Run Monte Carlo analysis et compare your planned spending with the tool’s safe-spending estimate.