Instead of assuming that one withdrawal rate is “safe,” test the actual retirement cash flows against many market paths и a chosen confidence target. Government pensions и ниже spending later in retirement can support a very different result than a flat withdrawal rule suggests.
Что правило 4% делает — и чего не делает
The well-known 4% rule comes from historical portfolio research и is often interpreted as withdrawing roughly 4% of the starting portfolio in year one, then increasing the dollar amount with inflation. It is not a Canadian tax rule и it does not automatically account for CPP, OAS, RRIF minimums, TFSA withdrawals, home decisions or an individual’s actual tax profile.
Пенсионные расходы часто меняются с возрастом
Many households spend more in the active early years of retirement, somewhat less later, и less again at advanced ages—although health и care costs can change that pattern. Modeling Go-Go, Slow-Go и No-Go spending phases can therefore be more realistic than assuming one inflation-adjusted spending level forever.
Используйте цель надежности, а не обещание
Monte Carlo analysis tests the plan against many different sequences of market returns. A “90% confidence” result means the modeled plan succeeded in roughly 90% of the simulated paths under the assumptions used. It is not a 90% guarantee. Assumptions can be wrong, tax rules change и real investment returns do not follow a perfect statistical distribution.
Как работает оптимизатор безопасных расходов
The planner estimates the highest Go-Go, Slow-Go и No-Go lifestyle spending consistent with a user-selected confidence target while keeping planned one-time expenses in the model. This produces a spending estimate tied to the household’s actual assets, benefits, taxes и timing.
Оценить устойчивые пенсионные расходы
Run Monte Carlo analysis и compare your planned spending with the tool’s safe-spending estimate.